May 23, 2006
How many houses?
Not enough houses are being built in the South East. Demand - driven by the increasing number of single person households and the continuing economic growth in the area, continues to outstrip supply. Why is this?
UK planning laws are onerous and unpredictable.
Developers are encumbered by planning guidelines, which insist (in Greater London) that for every dwelling they build to sell, they must build one for social housing. The result is that new housing starts have slowed to a trickle.
According to official figures 71% of Britain's 21.6m dwellings are owner-occupied. 11% are privately rented. Of the remaining 18%, 11% are local authority rented and 8% are registered social landlords.
Why the stipulation on developers to build 50% social housing?
Mayor Ken Livingstone would argue that it is because council housing stock is under-supplied, so that there is a shortage of affordable homes. Yet the policy of forcing developers to build 50% of social housing has effects which are diametrically the opposite of what the policy is ostensibly designed to achieve.
It cuts the supply of new housing, ramping up demand and the consequent house price inflation.
In her excellent survey of Britain's housing needs for HM Treasury Kate Barker observes:
* In 2001, around 175,000 houses were built in the UK – the lowest level since the second world war. And over the past ten years, the number of new houses built has been 12.5% lower than in the previous decade.
* Over the last 30 years, UK house prices went up by 2.4% a year in real terms – compared to the EU average of 1.1%. In Germany it was 0.0% and in France 0.8%. Latest evidence suggests the trend rate of house price growth has increased to 2.7% over the last 20 years.
The answer to the housing problem is to free developers from the cumbersome planning constraints imposed locally and at regional level, to create a presumption in favour of development and to put the onus on the local authority to demonstrate that development should not take place, where serious risks can be demonstrated.
This reform however, is opposed by two groups: the Left, who wish to retain the power of patronage offered by control of social housing, and the middle classes, who oppose developments that disturb their neighbourhoods and bring down the value of their property.
It is worth rehearsing Kate Barker's conclusions:
Taking as the baseline the level of private sector build in 2002/03 (140,000 gross starts and 125,000 gross completions) it is estimated that:
* Reducing the price trend in real house prices to 1.8% would require an additional 70,000 private sector homes per annum; and
* More ambitiously, reducing the trend in real house prices to 1.1% would require an additional 120,000 private sector homes per annum.
An increase in supply of social housing of 17,000 homes each year is required to meet newly arising need. Making inroads into the backlog of the most needy, coupled with the Report’s range of future price scenarios, mean that up to 23,000 additional social homes per annum would be required. These scenarios imply additional investment, building up to £1.2 (and £1.6 billion respectively), not all of which should necessarily come from Government.
The implications of this are that the market requires 120,000 privately-sold properties and 40,000 socially-let property a year to redress the balance. Mr. Livingstone's 50% social housing stipulation should be reduced to 25%.
Posted by Mark at 8:51 AM | Comments (0)
May 8, 2006
The Sultan's Elephant
Photo by Phil Gyford.
The show by the Sultan's Elephant in London over the long weekend was one of the most beautiful things I have seen for a long time. There are some clips of the show here and some stills here, but it is hard to do justice to the jaw-dropping size of these vast automata. My favourite moment of the weekend was overhearing a policeman announcing into his radio "The elephant is just at the end of Piccadilly. It's picking up the toy car."
Sheer joy.
Posted by Mark at 10:24 AM | Comments (0)
May 4, 2006
Boris Johnson's tackle
Last night's tackle by Henley MP Boris Johnson on Maurizio Gaudino during the England-Germany friendly is one of the funniest things I have seen for ages.
Posted by Mark at 5:08 PM | Comments (0)
May 3, 2006
David Cameron at Friends of the Earth gig
Tom Robinson in the Guardian blogs David Cameron's trip to Camden to see Thom Yorke and Jonny Greenwood of Radiohead at a Friends of the Earth gig.
Posted by Mark at 8:20 AM | Comments (0)
Completely transparent material
Engadget reports that researchers in Japan have invented a "completely transparent" material. This is one of those developments, like lossless compression, or superconductivity, which sets your imagination racing.
Posted by Mark at 8:13 AM | Comments (0)